Modi Again ?
State of Indian Economy,Election and its Future
The current polls for the Indian elections indicate that the incumbent BJP government led by Narendra Modi will win easily. India experienced the fastest economic growth in the post-covid era. India is expected to grow at a 6.8% annual rate in 2024. Which is higher than most countries, including China. However, because of China's larger economy, Indian growth is quantitatively lower.But, qualitatively, Chinese growth is more sustainable as it transitions from low to high quality growth. What the Chinese government described as "new high-quality productive forces." India's economy is characterised by a number of opposing forces.
India has the largest population and is situated in a strategic location in the world of commerce. India also has large agricultural lands, which are one of its primary exports. India has a growing industrial base. Last year, India received $70 billion in foreign direct investment. India has also begun some high-end manufacturing, signing several contracts for semiconductor and EV factories. And the data clearly shows that India's middle class is growing.
So everything is fine under the sun and moon? In India, inequality has increased significantly during the Modi period. This will eventually result in increased externalities for its economy. The previously explained growth story contains numerous flows. The majority of the hot money FDI went to the service sector of the economy, not the industrial sector. Some of the so-called growth is the result of the government's privatisation plan, which simply transfers assets from the public to the private sector. That is not real growth. And the hot money-driven economy will adjust in the coming years. However, the economy's growth potential outweighs the externalities, so even after the adjustment, the economy will grow at a 3-4% average.
What is the Modi phenomenon?
Modi, who has roots in the RSS (Hindu right-wing organisation), later took over the BJP with his fine cocktail of populist cultural and economic nationalism. However, this differs from what the West refers to as Hindu fascist nationalism. Certain elements of national production are present in his populism. After all, he came up with the slogan "made in India". As a result, he is a favourite among India's business elite. And he clearly gave certain business people, such as Adani, preferential treatment. Adani, with Modi's help, completed several infrastructure projects, which appear to be his bread and butter at the moment.
India is a developing country with underdeveloped capitalism. Elections in this country, like in any capitalist economy, are a game of money. When people are in monetised environments, organic mass mobilisation is difficult to scale up. This is why the Communist Party of India can win in Kerala but not elsewhere because they still have organic mass mobilisation in Kerala. However, in order to penetrate elsewhere, they require a significant amount of campaign funding, which they are unable to raise. The BJP currently runs one of the most expensive election campaigns in the world.
One factor that is often overlooked is the extent to which parties organise welfare programmes. These organise large populations and are very diverse. They include farmer collectives, different types of worker guilds, and business collectives. This grassroots institutional structure that the BJP has is the foundation of its voter base. These grassroots institutional bases provide a deeply embedded incentive scheme for people to participate in the party. There is a very immaterial western narrative that suggests that the bedrock of the BJP voter base stems from Hindu ideological mobilisation. They made an assumption that is far from the reality of BJP mass mobilisation. BJP has organisations that represent every facet of India, ranging from lower-level workers to various types of business owners. Each of these institutions has its own incentive mechanisms. The majority of such incentives are material, rather than ideological. As a result, they are a highly organised and institutionalised mass mobilisation machine. It is easy to overlook this viewpoint because the BJP's dominant narrative is the Hindu right-wing party narrative. Because this is what is conveyed to those outside. This is not to deny the power of the RSS and other Hindu right-wing factions, but they are not the foundation of the party's voter base. Even the RSS has its own grassroots welfare campaigns. Which offers a variety of welfare campaigns for the lower classes of society. Unlike the Western narrative, it is difficult to distinguish between RSS members' motives for joining, which can be either material or ideological. In most cases, it could be a combination of both.
What is the alternative?
In India, the main opposition consists of the Congress Party and other parties with varying political views. They call the coalition INDIA. However, it is clear that they are far behind the BJP. This is primarily because they lack the BJP's deeply penetrating institutional machinery and do not provide a clear path for India. Their primary arguments are corruption, anti-democratic practices, and "fascism". None of them make sense to ordinary people in India. Their issues are primarily material in nature. So they would rather support the BJP than the INDIA coalition's pro-democracy rhetoric. In most cases, Modi has a good chance of winning both this election and the next. Due to the opposition's weakness.